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Sunday, May 01, 2011 

Remember - Heavy Conservative Vote Concentration In Alberta Skews National Poll Results

The poll results could hardly be closer. One thing to remember (that the pollsters never tell you) concerns the normally high Conservative vote in Alberta and certain rural polls in Saskatchewan. While these high vote concentrations contribute to a leading Tory vote percentage overall, that does not necessarily pan out with projected riding distributions. In other words, the seats that the Conservatives win in Alberta have a huge percentage of the vote for Harper and raise his overall percentage of the national vote. Take those high vote concentrations out of the mix and the national averages may even have Harper trailing Jack Layton's national percentages.

"Here are the numbers as of last night:
* Conservatives: 34.6
* NDP: 31.4
* Liberals: 20.4
* Green Party: 6.3
* Bloc: 5.4 (a modern low nationally, with 22 points in Quebec)
Among those “certain to vote,” the Conservatives lead is reduced to a scant 2.4 per cent. (34.8 versus 32.4, which is statistically insignificant). The Green Party is reduced to 5.6 and all other parties remain unaffected."


The other factor is if there will be a youth surge, many of whom are not counted by the polls because they do not have traditional land lines.

I think U better say goodbye 2 that NDP seat in alberta tomorrow lol.

The big losers tomorrow May 2 will be the liberals

I think we are actually going to find a couple of seats in Edmonton!

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