Buckdog

The outcome of the Ontario election in early October will have a significant effect on Harper and the survival of his government. A Liberal majority will make it harder for him to gain either of the 2 vacant seats in byelections.

Then, he has the two other vacancies out west. Then he has to worry about a non-confidence vote after the throne speech. And he has to worry about the next budget and taming Flaherty. Remember the income trusts and the now impoverished pensioners?

Harper should be going soon. Surprised that he lasted this long but his playing Parliament like a fiddle shows him to be a manipulator and behind-the-scenes opportunist. Where are the open honest and acccountable elements he promised us?

He survived longer than Day but that's not too hard, is it?

Watch Ontario Oct. 10 then watch the speech from the throne and how it will be substantially moderated in light of Ontario's results.

Clearly the Bloc Quebecois senses Dion's weakness in Quebec and they want a federal campaign to try and capitalize on that weakness.

Certainly a unique perspective on what's going on in Quebec. Nobody lost more ground than the Bloc in the recent By-elections.

Hi Rob - I speculate that Gilles D. feels that he should go HARD after Dion and at the same time also try and capitalize on Harper's unpopular Afghanistan position. The Bloc is currently in a situation that if they don't do something aggressive then they will merely begin to 'fade away'.

I believe that the fixed election date legislation that was recently passed means that Harper cannot call an election himself. He must be defeated or wait until 09.

melissa
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Harper cannot call an election himself but he can present a throne speech so awful that he would lose a confidence vote.
That would set in motion a federal election--by his own connivance, I hasten to add.
That's pretty much what Julie van Dusen said this morning on Newsworld.
There is much to be gleaned from Don Newman's program at 5 pm ET.

David,
Yeah, i thought I had kind of put that forward when I said he must be defeated... I was just making sure that leftdog knew that Harper cannot go to the Governer General and ask for an election until 09. The other parties seem to be raring for an election if this that and the other thing they haven't cared about for a long time isn't in the speech.

Two of Dion's requirements not to vote against the Throne Speech are: that Harper commit to ending the combat mission in Afghanistan by Feb 2009 and re-admission of the extensively revised environment bill. Neither of these requirements are remotely likely. This being so I cannot see how Harper can avoid the combined opposition defeating him and thus forcing an election.
Dion might as well fight for seats rather than sit around and fight inside the party and lose even more support. I hope that Dion is right that people underestimate him. Certainly most of the pundits are against him but then so is much of the Liberal establishment it seems. Although I am not a liberal I certainly was glad to see him win over Ignatieff or Rae.